SpaceX’s Starlink IPO value is being under estimated

Starlink IPO value is being under estimated. Musk plans to launch 40,000+ satellites into service each capable of delivering gigabit service to 40,000+ users. That is a total user capacity of 1,600,000,000. This translates roughly to 100% of the communication industries market share.

What about competition though?

Starlink will have no credible competition. The traditional wisdom is that satellite internet is expensive and limited but Starlink is actually much cheaper to deploy than fiber optic lines used by tradition communications providers. Which means SpaceX will be able to price the service just under the operating costs of every current service provider in the world.

It is hard to imagine SpaceX charging less than $80/month on gigabit service as this is on par with the current market. Additionally, in some location, like the middle of the pacific ocean, will cost significantly more.

This creates potential for revenue of 128 billion dollars monthly. That is Jeff Bezos’s entire net worth every single month.

Seriously though what about competition?

It is clear that this will create huge incentive for competitors such as Blue Origin which already have space internet plans in the works. The question remains if Blue Origin can actually get to orbit though. They have provided no evidence of that. Blue Origin may lose all of its external funding once Starship comes online.

SpaceX’s Starship will be able to launch hundreds of satellites at a cost of approximately $3,000,000 per launch. This represents a 1000 X reduction in launch costs. Despite blue Origin being owned by the richest man in the world it is likely it receives most of its money from the NASA commercial crew program.

NASA will have a hard time convincing tax payers to fund a Blue Origin launch that can carry only 7 people for a price tag of 8 billion dollars when SpaceX is offering 100 people on flights for less than 1% of the cost.

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